The recent oil agreement signed between the United States and Venezuela is an event that demands rigorous examination. While a definitive technical analysis by experts in economics and hydrocarbons will only be possible once all its details are known, the urgency of the Venezuelan reality compels us to raise concerns from the perspective of human rights and the rule of law, given the repercussions that this type of agreement has on people’s lives and on society as a whole.
Under the narrative of “Phase 2: Recovery” of the Rubio Plan, this pact is publicly presented as the rescue of the national productive apparatus. However, a critical analysis of its structure reveals that the “recovery” appears to be designed under the America First doctrine: an asymmetrical binational benefit where the priority is to ensure control and preferential access for Western companies to the Venezuelan energy market, displacing the influence of China and Russia. While Washington acts as custodian of the cash flow after declaring the territorial security phase complete, the agreement triggers three alarms about the country’s future.
Alarm 1: The Breakdown of Legality and Constitutional Legitimacy
Any agreement for the exploitation of public resources managed under executive discretion raises serious institutional and legitimacy concerns.
First, the Venezuelan Constitution mandates that contracts of public interest and the conditions for hydrocarbon exploitation be debated and approved by the legislative body. Omitting this step renders the agreement null and void.
Second, by making a deal directly with a questionable executive branch lacking checks and balances, energy pragmatism is prioritized over the defense of reinstitutionalization and the constitutional order. The agreement is inherently flawed by bypassing the Republic’s legal channels.
Within this framework, the composition of those who crafted the agreement is alarming. According to statements by Donald Trump himself, his Secretaries of State and War actively participated in the negotiations; there is no mention whatsoever of the Energy portfolio. This unusual alignment of actors reinforces the argument previously made by the US president, who went so far as to refer to Venezuela and its oil wealth as “spoils of war.” Adding to the suspicion, while Washington’s military and diplomatic corps maneuvered, the other side maintained absolute secrecy; to this day, the identities of those who participated in the deliberations on behalf of Venezuela remain unknown—beyond the persistent references to businessman Alejandro Betancourt—further deepening doubts about the legitimacy of the agreement.
Alarm 2: Opacity and Lack of Accountability
When two administrations with a history of opaque political narratives and information manipulation seal a closed pact, basic principles of public administration are violated. The terms of the negotiation, the actual profit margins, the deadlines, and the long-term commitments (projected for 100 or 25 years, depending on each head of government’s interpretation) are unknown. There is also no information on the mechanisms for social oversight and auditing, making it impossible to measure the real impact of the resources on the population’s well-being. This opens a direct window for the misappropriation of funds or the perpetuation of widespread corruption schemes. The de facto government’s official “Sovereign Transparency” portal remains inactive after its launch in March 2026, leaving citizens in a state of absolute and deliberate fiscal blindness.
In addition to the opacity imposed from Caracas, there is an equally severe secrecy in Washington, where even U.S. institutions are being deliberately ignored. Despite the Trump administration having already seized billions of dollars in Venezuelan oil wealth under the pretext of safeguarding it for the benefit of both nations, the United States Congress has had no real opportunity to exercise oversight. Attempts by the Capitol to audit the management of the so-called Oil Fund have been unsuccessful. While Marco Rubio testifies vaguely about transfers to accounts in Qatar and an auditable account in the U.S., legislators on oversight committees formally denounce that the White House is keeping them in the dark, managing cash flows without independent audits, without clear safeguards, and under a scheme that circumvents accountability.
Alarm 3: The Obstruction of Democratic Transition and the Humanitarian Mirage
The justification for these agreements is sold with the promise that the reactivation of oil production will alleviate the crisis. However, from a human rights perspective, the risks cannot be ignored, given Chavismo’s 27-year history of failing to implement sustained public policies to overcome poverty. It is unclear whether there are binding clauses guaranteeing that the revenue will be used to mitigate the complex humanitarian emergency that has already displaced more than 8 million Venezuelans and has worsened following the two earthquakes in June.
Furthermore, by stabilizing the de facto government’s financial resources before consolidating a genuine political opening, there is a risk of reducing pressure on the ruling group. The influx of unchecked funds could diminish the incentives to negotiate competitive electoral conditions, indefinitely postponing Phase 3 of the Rubio Plan. The Rodríguez family has been adept at “buying time,” and there is no indication that they have abandoned this strategy. A spokesperson dared to openly declare that this agreement guarantees them “Chavismo for 1,000 years.” Washington, for its part, presents the agreement to its country’s electorate as “historic,” while Trump’s popularity is at an all-time low for his current term on the eve of the midterm elections.
Faced with a scenario where economic pragmatism threatens to bury democratic aspirations, international actors must demand total transparency, press for the funds generated to be managed under the supervision of independent international agencies to directly address the health, services, and food crisis affecting the population, and insist on demands regarding human rights, the unconditional release of all political prisoners, and verifiable electoral timetables in exchange for barrels of oil.