Opposition leader María Corina Machado was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. The Norwegian Nobel Committee said in a statement that it had chosen Machado “for her tireless work promoting the democratic rights of the Venezuelan people and for her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy.”
The award represents recognition of her work during the 2024 presidential elections, in which she led a movement that not only relaunched the electoral path under the most difficult conditions, capitalizing on a landslide victory for Edmundo González Urrutia, but also organized, both inside and outside Venezuela, the defense of the vote through peaceful resistance and the use of conventional mechanisms of international law.
There are many angles from which the award could be analyzed. From a political perspective, it is undeniable that the laurel is an encouragement to the struggle of Venezuelan democratic forces and opens the way to new political scenarios through possible actions leading to negotiation. Some experts consulted suggest that, similar to the peace process in Colombia with Juan Manuel Santos, support for the work in Venezuela grants renewed legitimacy to a key player, in this case María Corina Machado, making her the international guarantor of any negotiated exit for Maduro. The challenge remains for her to channel this award toward a peaceful transition, that is, in strict accordance with the values the prize seeks to promote, such as democratic order and respect for human rights. We will return to this point below because it is where the main challenges lie.
At the political level, direct messages are being sent to the de facto regime. On the one hand, the international community is turning against Maduro to force him to leave power. This has been expressed by the European Union, the OAS, several European and regional governments, the Carter Center, and the Norwegian Committee, among other actors. The support achieved in this regard is notable. On the other hand, the rhetoric against Maduro is increasingly incisive and direct from previously more cautious states such as Norway and Switzerland. The illegitimate government reacts with repression, arresting innocent people who shared the news of Machado’s award on WhatsApp, censoring media outlets by firing their journalists, and closing the Norwegian embassy. Maduro, however, must recognize that María Corina Machado is the protagonist of the opposition and must reach an agreement with her if he wants to end the crisis and allow for the pacification of Venezuela with a democratic transition government with sufficient guarantees. Ultimately, he is primarily responsible for what happens in the future of the political conflict and holds the key to fostering a peaceful outcome.
However, the most important messages are directed at the opposition leader. The international community insists that the end of the dictatorship—no matter how “criminal” or “narco-tyrannical” it is described—must be channeled through institutional framework. Amid so much insurrectionist and military noise from the United States, María Corina Machado received the Nobel Peace Prize. This gesture could not have a more explicit meaning: international support for his figure rests precisely on the construction of the democratic path she managed to articulate during the electoral months, and this is the path that builds confidence and greater scope for action. As another analyst points out, the Norwegian Committee did not speak of a “cartel of the suns” or a “narco-state,” but rather of July 28th, an issue that Machado and his team seem to have forgotten, in an attempt to turn the page and replace it with the agenda of a foreign government that has interests different from those needed by Venezuela.
In fact, María Corina Machado and the United States government may agree on removing Maduro from power, but their unity stops there. The latter is not necessarily interested in a democratic transition, nor in the consequences of a possible armed operation within the country. Machado, on the other hand, should be. As leader of the opposition, he assumes the responsibility of taking charge of the day after: ensuring a democratic, orderly, and peaceful transition, avoiding further damage to those accumulated by Venezuelan society. His capacity for perseverance and inspiration must consistently serve these ends, seeking to unite democratic forces to bring about a negotiated solution to the Venezuelan crisis. In return, she must distance himself from violence, including from foreign narratives that is far from controlling.
Thus, the main challenge for Machado’s leadership is to secure the political alliances she deems relevant, coordinating actions to exert greater pressure for negotiations, and taking care not to lose sight of the democratic leader who emerged from the July 28 mandate. This entails rethinking her role as a leader who does not remain silent or take ambiguous positions in the face of injustices against Venezuelans at home and abroad, because abuses deny real and sustainable solutions. In essence, the opposition leader organized an electoral solution and has just reenergized herself to build the strength that will lead to the re-democratization of Venezuela. It is now necessary to design a path to defending the vote by reactivating the democratic forces around the Venezuelan cause.
In turn, the international community is called upon to react accordingly. If its intention is a peaceful transition in Venezuela, then it has a shared responsibility to commit to achieving the reconquest of the values of liberal democracy that the West is currently losing thanks to regimes like Venezuela’s and, to a certain extent, the United States itself. International law must respond in opposition to any violent scenario. Democratic states, while maintaining peaceful channels, must go beyond conventional mechanisms and coordinate actions to force Maduro to cease repression and begin a democratic transition. To this end, coordination with the leader of the Venezuelan opposition is essential, as well as with civil society and other actors across the political spectrum. Perhaps the first action is to stop the infamous hostage diplomacy, a form of blackmail that only fuels the government and multiplies the victims. Without a victory for the international community, with key players like the UN Secretary-General taking the lead, it will be difficult for Machado and the democratic forces to achieve their goal, and Venezuela will come to regret what has been another failed opportunity for change.