A transition is a process through which an authoritarian regime evolves into a democratic system. It is not simply a change of government, but a deeper transformation that affects the rules of power, the nature of institutions, and the relationship between the state and society.
When the dominant bloc restores rights that it had previously restricted or eliminated, there are signs of a potential transition. It is a process—not a single moment—that begins with early symptoms, though these may still be insufficient to conclude that a transition is underway. A transition implies the opening of spaces for political competition, the restoration of institutional guarantees, and the redefinition of balances among different actors in power. In many cases, such processes occur through negotiations between sectors of the regime and sectors of the opposition. In others, change is the result of accumulated social pressures or economic transformations that ultimately alter the structure of political power.
The Venezuelan case has an additional level of complexity, given that the triggering factor behind these indications of a possible transition is an action by the United States. Following the action carried out on January 3 and the subsequent removal of Nicolás Maduro—who had exercised the presidency irregularly since 2018—the United States has assumed a tutelary role over Venezuela, clearly indicating decisions to be taken and determining courses of action in both economic and political matters.
Returning to the restoration of rights that until January 3 had been radically curtailed, it should be noted that these restorations have so far been partial and slow. There are certainly cases—such as that of political prisoners—in which progress has been extremely gradual. Considering that some citizens have been arbitrarily detained for decades, compliance with the recently enacted Amnesty Law for Democratic Coexistence should have taken place without delay. Therefore, the inexplicable exclusions contained in the law and the slowness in its implementation are a cause for concern.
For the purposes of a transition—and considering that the regime has had a totalitarian character and has maintained control over all branches of power—the appointment of a new Attorney General of the Republic is of the utmost importance. Until only weeks ago, this position represented a threat to the civil and political rights of Venezuelans. Candidates from universities and civil society have been presented who enjoy considerable professional recognition and respect. However, the possibility that the National Assembly may appoint a figure loyal to the regime rather than to the constitution generates significant uncertainty. The same situation applies to the position of Ombudsman, another key office for the protection of rights, which must be filled within the same timeframe.
There are also extremely important sectors of Venezuelan public life that have not taken a public stance demonstrating a firm commitment to the search for a democratization process. The military sector has maintained a striking silence, probably due to the limited authority of its leadership, which demonstrated overwhelming inefficiency during the foreign military action that “extracted” its former leader. It may also be due to its institutional weakness after decades of personalist subordination and fear of internal reprisals that still keep hundreds of active military personnel imprisoned. Perhaps, in the worst-case scenario, it is because it wishes for the current process to fail and for a regression to the authoritarian situation.
The judiciary, for its part, has maintained more than a discreet role in the peculiar and delicate situation the country is experiencing. Also accustomed to subordination to the executive branch and lacking institutional agency, the judiciary has lost the reflex that enables it to act as an independent power.
For those who advocate the exercise of civil and political rights, and for those who view with alarm the humanitarian situation in the country that demands urgent measures, the fact that the central role in directing the state apparatus—now with explicit recognition from the United States—rests in the hands of the vice president appointed by Nicolás Maduro is deeply troubling. She was a central participant in the state of affairs that must now be overcome.
It is easy to understand the anxiety generated by the current situation. There have been changes and advances which, compared with the reality prevailing two months ago, are very valuable. However, in the absence of a roadmap aimed at legitimizing a new government, the idea that these changes could be halted or reversed remains deeply unsettling. The fragility of this moment lies both in its dependence on the will of a foreign government and in the fact that local political leadership remains entirely in the hands of operators who, until yesterday, symbolized some of the most abhorrent violations of rights.
The central question is this: within the existing reality, can a transition to democracy occur within a short period of time? Can the necessary reform of the current Supreme Tribunal of Justice be carried out within two months? Can legislative reforms be advanced to move beyond decades of ideologically driven norms that have served as instruments of repression, such as the law against hate? Can the Electoral Registry be updated to include the millions of Venezuelans abroad who are constitutionally entitled to vote? Can the National Electoral Council be rebuilt from both a technical and political perspective?
Carrying out these tasks is an unavoidable challenge, even though their execution requires time. But by recognizing that the process requires time, we must also acknowledge that those currently directing the country have time as their principal ally. Time is the oxygen that may allow them to introduce minor, cosmetic modifications to their authoritarian vocation, temporarily set aside totalitarian ambitions, and continue exercising power so that—should external pressure cease—they may once again resort to violence and repression to retain power without limits.
For this reason, more than ever, the international community must pay the closest attention to the situation in Venezuela. There are elements that favor a transition, but they are only the beginning of a delicate path toward democracy. Much ground remains to be covered before Venezuela can fully rejoin the community of democracies in the international arena.